This is an
output for our projections models. We are testing them this season and have
reached an accuracy level very similar to more traditional sources. In order to
get even better, we welcome any comments, suggestions or advices.
We have in
this blog four outputs:
- Power Rankings
- Points Against
- Projected Points
- Players Values
Our Fantasy
Power Rankings are the first step to calculated players projections. Good teams
usually have players with higher fantasy points. Notice this is a fantasy
ranking, so teams with more points and yards, for instance, even with bad or
regular records, will have more power in fantasy land.
Points
Against or allowed are a very traditional way to evaluate players performances
in a matchup. Our points against projections adjust previous data to avoid
distortions caused by the opponents’ power (like a team that just faced weak
teams, or bad tight ends, for instance). That´s our second step to project
fantasy points.
Projected
Points is the final output of our calculations. We consider 3 core indicators:
team power, matchup and points against, and players performance. We also adjust
the projections in a more qualitative approach, which we call “situation”
(player health, team momentum and home field, for instance).
Once we
have projected points done, we can also calculate the value of a player for the
remaining schedule, based on his projected points and adjusted in order to
permit comparisons across positions (running backs and wide receivers have more
value than other positions). We also calculate the value for the final weeks
(playoffs).
Good luck!
